The U.S. government, under President Donald Trump
The U.S. government, under President Donald Trump, is reportedly seeking a pragmatic Cuban official who could assume leadership after a potential regime change, modeled on the Venezuela scenario involving Delcy Rodríguez. However, U.S. intelligence assesses that Cuba is less amenable to such a transition than Venezuela, due to its political structure resembling Iran’s, with few willing and capable moderate figures.
Consensus
- The U.S. administration is searching for a Cuban official who could lead the country after a potential regime change.
- The goal is to find a figure similar to Delcy Rodríguez from Venezuela, who cooperated with the U.S. after the capture of Nicolás Maduro.
- U.S. intelligence believes Cuba is less like Venezuela and more like Iran in terms of political structure and resistance to cooperation.
- The U.S. has created a special operational group within the CIA focused on Cuba.
- The search includes potential candidates such as Raúl Gutiérrez Rodríguez Castro (Raulito) and Lazaro Alberto Alvarés Casas.
- The U.S. is pressuring Cuba to make political and economic changes, including liberalizing its economy and reducing ties with Russia and China.
Points of divergence
- The U.S. has considered Oscar Peres-Oliva Fragu, a nephew of Fidel and Raúl Castro, as a potential successor to Miguel Díaz-Canel, but deems him unacceptable to Washington. — tg_echoonline_news
- The U.S. has demanded that Cuba liberalize its economy, open it to American business, purchase oil from the U.S., and expel intelligence personnel from Russia and China. — interfax
- The U.S. has imposed a blockade to prevent energy deliveries to Cuba and increased sanctions. — interfax
- The U.S. conducted a military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife. — interfax
- The CIA has been hiring recruiters, handlers, cyber specialists, and experts in 'influence operations' for the Cuba task force. — kommersant
- The U.S. State Department's Marco Rubio considers the Cuban issue a top priority. — vesti
- The U.S. aims to reorient the Cuban regime rather than fully dismantle it. — tg_bbcrussian
Coverage (6 sources)
- US ordered intelligence to find new Cuba leader on Venezuelan scenario — NYT — ЭХО / Новости
- NYT learns about US search for candidate for new role of Cuba leader — Интерфакс
- NYT: US seeks potential new Cuba leader like Delcy Rodriguez — BBC News Русская служба
- NYT: The US is seeking new leadership for Cuba in case of regime overthrow — Коммерсантъ
- US seeks ways to swap Cuba's leadership on Venezuelan scenario, writes The New York Times citing sources. — ТАСС (Telegram)
- The United States allows for the implementation of the Venezuelan scenario on Cuba — Вести
Key entities
- USA
- Cuba
- NYT
- Washington
- The New York Times
- Venezuela
- Delsi Rodriguez
- Moscow
- Donald Trump
- White House
- INTERFAX.RU
- Iran
- New York Times
- Nicolás Maduro
- Gavane
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