VTB forecasts dollar at 87 rubles by 2027
VTB's first deputy chairman, Dmitry Pyanov, forecasted that the average exchange rate for the US dollar will be around 87 rubles in 2027, with the ruble expected to remain near current levels by the end of 2026. He cited the balance of payments, supply and demand dynamics, and export activity as key factors influencing the currency.
Consensus
- The average exchange rate for the US dollar is expected to be around 87 rubles in 2127.
- The ruble is expected to remain near current levels by the end of the 2026.
- The dynamics of the ruble are primarily determined by the balance of payments and the supply and demand of foreign currency from exporters and importers.
- Short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate are expected due to market volatility.
- The adaptability of the Russian economy is considered high.
- A drop in key export volumes could temporarily negatively affect the exchange rate.
- After finding alternative export channels, the situation may reverse.
- The Central Bank's official exchange rate on 28 August was 85.95 rubles per dollar.
- The euro exceeded 100 rubles on the Forex market the day before 28 August.
- VTB published financial results for January–July, showing a 73.4% year-on-year increase in July profit.
- VTB's net profit for January–July was 265.6 billion rubles.
- The bank's capital return rate for January–July was 16.2%.
Points of divergence
- The Moscow Exchange index fell below 2100 points for the first time since 20 December 2022 on 16 July. — vm
- The Moscow Exchange's morning trading session resumed on 27 January. — fontanka
- The main reason for ruble weakening is the imbalance between foreign currency purchases by importers, tourists, and overseas transfers, and insufficient sales by exporters. — komersant
- Brent crude oil fell to the lower end of the $85–90 range, which traditionally pressures the ruble. — komersant
- VTB's base scenario assumes a 2027 average dollar rate of around 87 rubles. — fontanka
- VTB maintains a conservative forecast, with no signs of a sharp currency drop by year-end. — komersant
- VTB's key rate forecast for the end of 2026 remains unchanged at 13.5% annually. — fontanka
Coverage (3 sources)
- First Deputy Head of VTB Pyanov Declares He Expects Dollar at 87 Rubles in 2027 — Вечерняя Москва
- VTB: average exchange rate expected at level of 87 rubles per dollar in 2027 — Фонтанка
- VTB forecasted the ruble exchange rate until the end of 2026 — Коммерсантъ