Russia's GDP Grew 1% in Q3 2026
According to preliminary estimates by Rosstat, GDP growth in the third quarter of 2026 amounted to 1.0% year-on-year (slightly higher than the assessment by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, which was based on operational data), following a growth of 1.3% year-on-year in the second quarter.
Consensus
- Russia's GDP grew by 1.0% in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.
- The Central Bank of Russia projected a 1% growth in Russia's GDP for the full year of 2026.
- The growth in the third quarter was higher than the Ministry of Economic Development's earlier estimate of 0.6%.
- The growth was driven by domestic demand, including retail trade and food services.
- The Ministry of Economic Development revised its 2026 GDP forecast upward to 0.6% from 0.4%.
- The Central Bank of Russia revised its 2026 growth forecast to a range of 0.5–1.0%.
- The growth in the second half of 2026 was described as having entered an upward trajectory.
- The Central Bank cited damage from drone attacks as a factor limiting growth, but noted that the economy continued to grow despite this.
- The Ministry of Economic Development noted that machine building and metallurgy contributed significantly to growth.
- The Central Bank emphasized that further growth depends on the speed of restoring damaged production capacities.
Points of divergence
- The growth in the third quarter was 1.0% year-on-year, which is better than expected by the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank. — thebell
- Sectors that contracted in the third quarter include agriculture (−3.9%), mining (−2.7%), energy (−2.8%), and passenger transport (−3%). — thebell
- The Ministry of Economic Development previously estimated the third-quarter growth at 0.6% and the January–September growth at 0.6%, which was revised upward to 0.8%. — interfax
- The Central Bank's October forecast for 2026 was 0.5–1.0%, implying a most likely growth of 0.7–0.8%. — interfax
- Elvira Nabiullina stated that the economy is growing despite the loss of production capacities due to drone attacks. — vm
- The Central Bank highlighted machine building, particularly defense industry enterprises, as a key driver of growth. — vedomosti
- The Central Bank noted that inflationary expectations remain high and that sustainable price growth has not decreased. — vedomosti
- Elvira Nabiullina said the GDP growth for the year would be within 1%, despite the loss of economic capacities due to drone attacks. — tg_tass_agency
- Elvira Nabiullina stated the economy entered an upward trajectory in the second half of 2026 and that growth will gradually accelerate. — vesti
Coverage (11 sources)
- Russian economic growth slowed to 1%, but exceeded Ministry of Economic Development expectations — Новая газета Европа
- Ministry of Economic Development noted that Russia's GDP growth for January-September amounted to 0.8% — Интерфакс
- Russia's GDP growth in the third quarter slowed to 1%. This is better than expected by the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank — The Bell
- Rosstat noted growth of Russian Federation GDP in III quarter by 1.0% — Интерфакс
- Nabiyullina: Russia's GDP will grow by up to 1 percent by the end of 2026 — Вечерняя Москва
- Central Bank expects Russian GDP growth in 2026 to be within 1% — Интерфакс
- Naбиуллина прогнозирует рост ВВП в пределах 1% in 2026 — Ведомости
- Russian GDP to grow by 1% this year despite loss of economic capacity due to drone attacks, says Na... — ТАСС (Telegram)
- Head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation gave a forecast for GDP growth by the end of 2026 — Вести
- Russian GDP to grow by 1% this year despite loss of economic capacity due to drone attacks, says Na... — ТАСС (Telegram)
- Sber expects Russian GDP growth in 2027 to be in the range of 1.2-1.7%, inflation at 4.5-5% — Интерфакс
Key entities
- Russia
- Ministry of Economic Development
- Nabiullina
- CB
- Moscow
- Rosstat
- INTERFAX.RU
- TASS
- State Duma
- Central Bank
- Bank of Russia
- Sberbank
- Interfax
- Taras Skvortsov
- Elvira Nabiullinana
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