World Fertility Drops Below Replacement Level

Global birth rates have fallen for the first time below the level needed to replace the population.

Consensus

Global fertility rates fell below the replacement level in 2026.
This is the first time in human history that this has occurred.
The replacement level of fertility is approximately 2.1 children per woman.
The decline in fertility is observed across 219 countries, with no signs of reversal.
Population growth will continue for about 30 more years due to demographic inertia.
The global population is expected to peak around 2056 and then begin to decline.
The decline is particularly pronounced in developing countries such as Thailand, Colombia, Iran, Brazil, Mexico, and Tunisia.
Fertility rates in Mexico and Tunisia are lower than among non-Hispanic white women in the United States.
The decline is linked to modern societal factors such as high education standards and the social acceptability of childlessness.
The trend challenges traditional models of economic growth based on population increase.

The study was conducted by Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World. — vm
The study was conducted by researchers from Penn State and Northwestern University. — kommerant
The global population reached 8 billion by the end of 2022, and the 9 billion milestone is expected by 2037. — vm
The study predicts the population peak will be reached by 2056, earlier than the UN's forecast of 2084. — kommerant
The authors suggest that the decline in fertility is due to the 'phenomenon of modernity' and the high cost of raising a third child in formalized societies. — kommerant
The study analyzed data from 236 countries since 1950 and found that the long-term fertility decline peaked in 1978. — vm
The study notes that the decline is most rapid in developing countries, not developed ones. — kommerant