Yuan to Hold at 12.50–12.75 Rubles Amid Rate Pause
Among the main prerequisites for such a decision are rising inflation expectations, steady price growth including under the influence of the fuel factor, and increased lending, which is fueling demand for goods and services,
Consensus
- The yuan's exchange rate against the ruble will remain within the 12.50–12.50 ruble range from October 19 to 23, 2026.
- The Bank of Russia is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 14.00% and continue a pause in monetary policy easing.
- Inflationary pressures, including those from fuel prices and rising credit demand, are key factors influencing the exchange rate.
- The Bank of Russia's decision on the key rate is the main event affecting the ruble-yuan pair this week.
- The September oil export revenue is supporting foreign currency supply in Russia.
Points of divergence
- Russia is selling its gold reserves, having offloaded 43.5 tons in six months. — vm
- Global gold buying is at record levels, with China importing 163 tons in one month, Poland adding 51 tons, and Guatemala and Kenya joining the trend. — vm
- China's September CPI rose 0.9% year-on-year, driven by energy and industrial goods prices. — riamo
- China's September exports rose 36.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 25.5%, and imports rose 31%. — riamo
Coverage (2 sources)
- What will be the course of the yuan from October 19 to 23, 2026 — Вечерняя Москва
- Yuan will get stuck in a narrow corridor: expert gives forecast for the week — РИАМО