Economic activity in Russia in the second quarter of 2026 was higher… (рост · россия · уровень)
Economic activity in Russia in the second quarter of 2026 was higher than that in the first quarter, which allows for an expectation of a transition to year-on-year GDP growth; however, sectoral heterogeneity has become even more pronounced, and the economy has encountered a negative supply shock.
Consensus
- The Bank of Russia has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 0.6%.
- Inflation expectations for 2026 have been revised upward to 6.2%, with a target level expected only by 2028–2029.
- Key interest rate forecasts remain elevated, with an average of 14.5% in 2026 and projected declines through 2029.
- The Russian economy showed signs of recovery in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the first quarter.
- Consumer and government demand are key drivers of economic activity.
- Supply-side disruptions, including unplanned refinery maintenance, have affected oil production and transportation.
Points of divergence
- Russia is experiencing a near-stagflationary situation where some goods do not respond to changes in the central bank's key rate due to market rigidity and monopolistic practices, while others remain price-stable due to weak demand. — vesti
- The Bank of Russia noted a 'small dip' in paid services consumption in May, attributed to reduced availability of familiar tourist destinations, which may be temporary. — interfax
- The median long-term growth rate for the Russian economy remains unchanged at 1.7%. — vedomosti
Coverage (3 sources)
- Economists See Russia Facing Near-Stagflation Situation — Вести
- Central Bank of Russia analysts note resumption of economic growth in Q2 — Интерфакс
- Central Bank: Forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2026 reduced to 0.6% — Ведомости