Le Pen leads in French poll ahead of 2027 election
A French opinion poll indicates that Marine Le Pen of the National Rally is poised to win the 2027 presidential election in the second round with a significant lead over her main rivals, amid heightened political tensions following recent riots.
Consensus
- Marine Le Pen is the leading candidate in the French presidential election polls for 2027.
- Le Pen is expected to win the second round with a substantial margin over her opponents.
- The opinion poll was conducted between October 17 and 19, 2024.
- The poll reflects public sentiment following recent riots and protests in France.
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise is the second most supported candidate.
- Édouard Philippe and Raphaël Glucksmann are both considered potential second-round opponents for Le Pen.
- Emmanuel Macron will not run for re-election due to constitutional term limits.
- The riots occurred on the weekend preceding the poll, with some incidents involving looting and violence.
Points of divergence
- Le Pen's support has increased to 36% of voters, and she is ahead of all other candidates by more than double the margin of the next contender. — tg_rybar
- Le Pen's support in the first round is projected at 34-38%, and her lead over the next candidate is 18-22 percentage points. — interfax
- The riots on October 17–18 strengthened Le Pen's position, and she leads in a post-riot poll with 56% to 44% against Philippe. — tg_rybar
- The poll shows Le Pen leading with 56% against Philippe and 68% against Mélenchon in the second round. — interfax
- Le Pen's support increased after a July court decision that lifted her ban on running, despite a prior conviction related to EU deputy aides. — tg_rybar
- The poll indicates that the largest margin of victory for Le Pen would be against Mélenchon, with 68% to 32%. — interfax
- The riots were attributed to ultraleftists by authorities. — tg_rybar
- Western media reported that a significant portion of riot participants were immigrants or descendants of immigrants. — interfax
Coverage (2 sources)
- One against all — Рыбарь
- In France, a poll gives Marine Le Pen victory in second round of presidential elections — Интерфакс
Key entities
- France
- Marine Le Pen
- Moscow
- INTERFAX.RU
- BFMTV
- National Union
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon
- Unbowed of France
- Edvard Filipp
- IFOP
- National Union (RN)
- LFI
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