Le Pen leads in 2027 French presidential polls
Marine Le Pen leads in French presidential polls for 2027, with consistent support between 34% and 38% across multiple surveys, and is projected to win in the second round against all major challengers. The elections are scheduled for April 18 and May 2, 2027.
Consensus
- Marine Le Pen is the leading candidate in French presidential polls for the 2027 election.
- Le Pen is projected to win in the second round regardless of her opponent.
- The first round of the 2027 French presidential election is scheduled for April 18, 2027.
- The second round is scheduled for May 2, 2027.
- Emmanuel Macron is ineligible to run due to serving two consecutive terms.
- Le Pen remains eligible to run despite a prior conviction for misuse of public funds.
- The polls were conducted in late August 2024.
- The surveys were conducted online with a sample of 1,764 French voters from the electoral register.
- The margin of error in the surveys is between 1.4 and 3.1 percentage points.
- Le Pen's support ranges from 34% to 38% in the first round across different scenarios.
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon is consistently the second most supported candidate in most scenarios.
- Édouard Philippe is a strong contender in some scenarios, particularly when other candidates are excluded.
Points of divergence
- Le Pen's support ranges from 34% in the lowest scenario to 35.5% in the highest, based on Elabe survey for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche. — interfax
- Le Pen's support is 35%, with a projected second-round win over Philippe (52% vs 48%) and Mélenchon (67% vs 33%). — vm
- Le Pen's support is 35% in the first round, with a second-round win over Philippe (51% vs 49%), Aтталь (55% vs 45%), and Mélenchon (67% vs. 33%). — vedomosti
- Le Pen's support is between 35% and 38%, with a 16-percentage-point lead over the next candidate in all five scenarios. — tg_moscowtimes_ru
- In one scenario, Philippe and Mélenchon tie at 17% if both Aтталь and Hollande are excluded. — vesti
- Philippe reaches 19% only if Aтталь and Glucksmann are excluded, while Mélenchon gets 17% in that case. — kommersant
- Gabriel Attal's support drops to 6.5% in a scenario where he faces Philippe. — interfax
- Philippe leads Mélenchon by 3 points in a scenario with Glucksmann and by 5.5 points with Hollande. — interfax
- Le Pen was sentenced in 2025 to four years in prison, a 100,000 euro fine, and a five-year ban on running for office, but the appeal court restored her eligibility. — vedomosti
Coverage (7 sources)
- Poll shows good chances for Le Pen to win in French presidential elections in 2027 — Интерфакс
- Marine Le Pen leads French presidential rating at 35 percent — Вечерняя Москва
- Le Pen takes first place in polls ahead of French presidential election — Ведомости
- Leader of the far-right Marine Le Pen forecasted to win easily in French presidential election — The Moscow Times
- M6: Marine Le Pen leads other candidates for the post of President of France by a margin — Вечерняя Москва
- Poll: Marine Le Pen leads other candidates for the French presidency — Вести
- Social survey recorded a large lead for Le Pen in the presidential race — Коммерсантъ
Key entities
- France
- Marine Le Pen
- National Union
- Toluna Harris Interactive
- M6
- RTL
- Moscow
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon
- Edvard Filipp
- INTERFAX.RU
- Izvestiya
- National Assembly
- BFM
- France Unbowed
- Unbowed of France
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