Central Bank Forecasts Recovery of Production Capacity by 2027
The Central Bank of Russia's base forecast expects the recovery of idle production capacity by 2027, but the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, stated at a press conference that she cannot yet assess more precisely when exactly this will happen.
Consensus
- The Central Bank of Russia expects the restoration of lost production capacities in 2027.
- The exact timing of the recovery cannot be determined at this stage.
- The speed of recovery is a factor of uncertainty.
- Secondary and indirect effects, including impacts on prices and inflation expectations, are considered risks.
- The Central Bank maintains a moderately tight monetary policy due to these uncertainties.
Points of divergence
- On 23 September, the Bank of Russia expected gradual recovery of lost capacities by the end of 2026. — vedomosti
- On 5 October, Deputy Chair Alexei Zabotkin stated that demand in the Russian economy would equal production capacity by 2027, creating conditions for inflation to return to the target level of 4%. — vedomosti
- On 13 October, Deputy Chair Zabotkin said the Board of Directors would clarify the impact of lost production capacities on the macroeconomic forecast at the 23 October meeting. — vedomosti
- On 23 October, Chair Elvira Nabiullina stated that the effect of temporary capacity loss could be more prolonged and require longer maintenance of moderately tight monetary conditions. — interfax
- On 23 October, Chair Nabiullina mentioned that the conservative federal budget projection for the three-year period prevented the realization of potential monetary policy easing. — interfax
Coverage (2 sources)
- Central Bank expects restoration of idle production capacity by 2027 — Ведомости
- Central Bank assumes restoration of lost capacity by 2027 — Интерфакс