Russia's Central Bank Rules Out Bond Default Wave
There is no talk of a wave of bond defaults in the Russian Federation; such corporate securities account for only 0.1%, according to the head of the Central Bank of Russia.
Consensus
- The Central Bank of Russia does not expect a wave of corporate bond defaults.
- The share of corporate bonds with defaults is 0.1% of all bonds in circulation.
- The Central Bank plans to reform rating agencies to make them respond more quickly to significant corporate events.
- Rating agencies should assign a 'under observation' status when major events occur, signaling potential rating changes.
- The Central Bank's key rate was maintained at 14% annually at the October 23 meeting.
- The legislative proposal to reform rating agencies has passed the first reading.
Points of divergence
- In the first half of 2026, 13 companies defaulted, compared to eight in the same period of the previous year, with four being digital financial asset (DFA) issuers. — vedomosti
- The share of new defaulting companies is 1.4% of all corporate bond and DFA issuers, and their total public debt is about 0.1% of the entire corporate debt market (36.6 trillion rubles). — vedomosti
- 25 out of 26 economists surveyed by Vedomosti expected the key rate to remain at 14%, with only one predicting a drop to 13.75%. — vedomosti
Coverage (2 sources)
- At the Central Bank, they do not expect a wave of defaults in the bond market — Ведомости
- There is no talk of any wave of defaults on bonds in the Russian Federation, such corporate securities account for 0.1%, reports the head... — ТАСС (Telegram)