Central Bank Keeps Key Rate at 14%

Naбиуллина stated that the scope for reducing the key rate in 2027 has become smaller.

Consensus

The Bank of Russia maintained the key interest rate at 14% on October 23.
The space for reducing the key rate in 2027 still exists but has decreased.
The Bank of Russia revised upward its projected trajectory for the key rate, reducing available room for cuts.
The central bank discussed only the option of maintaining the rate, with no consideration of changes.
The central bank emphasized evaluating rate policy based on trajectory rather than individual meetings.
Inflation remains above target, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in Q3.
The Bank of Russia expects inflation to return to the 4% target by 2027.
The central bank noted ongoing recovery in investment activity, supported by production and construction data.

The Bank of Russia's board subjectively discussed only the retention of the key rate, and the central bank noted that elevated inflationary expectations continue to hinder price growth. — vedomosti
The board discussed only the retention of the rate and primarily a neutral signal, with no consideration of a strict signal. — interfax
The central bank revised its forecast for the key rate in 2026 to 14.6%, and projected 12.5–13.5% for 2027, up from previous 10.5–12.5%. — m24
Elvira Nabiyulina stated that the space for rate cuts in 2027 has decreased due to an upward revision of the trajectory. — vesti