IEA Cuts 2026 Oil Supply Forecast Over Refinery Attacks
In July, global processing capacity increased, but remained nearly 5 million barrels per day below the level of the previous year — at 80.9 million barrels per day.
Consensus
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its 2026 forecast for global oil supply and demand.
- Global oil refining capacity is projected to decrease by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026.
- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a major factor affecting global oil supply.
- Oil production in the Persian Gulf remains 8.3 million barrels per day below pre-war levels.
- Global oil supply is expected to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day in 2026.
- The IEA reports that global oil demand in 2026 will decline by 1.6 million barrels per day.
- Oil prices rose significantly in July, with North Sea Dated reaching a peak of $105 per barrel.
- Global oil inventories declined in July due to supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea.
Points of divergence
- Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries are a key factor contributing to the reduction in global oil refining capacity. — thebell
- The IEA expects global oil demand to decline by 1.05 million barrels per day in July, which is less than previously forecasted. — vedomosti
- Russian crude oil production decreased slightly in July to 8.76 million barrels per day from 8.86 million in June. — thebell
- Oil production in the Persian Gulf reached 23.9 million barrels per day in June. — vedomosti
- Diesel exports from Russia, the Middle East, and Asia fell by 1.3 million barrels per day, representing about 20% of global diesel trade. — thebell
- The IEA expects a recovery in global oil demand growth to 2.4 million barrels per day in 2027. — vedomosti
Coverage (3 sources)
- Attacks on Russian oil refineries and the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz will reduce global oil refining by 2.5 million barrels per day — The Bell
- Strikes on Russian oil refineries and crisis around the Strait of Hormuz will cut global oil refining by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026 — The Bell
- MEP worsened forecast for global oil demand decline — Ведомости