Russia's tax crime cases surge 17.2% in first half of 2026
Russia saw a record 17.2% increase in tax-related criminal cases in the first half of 2026, attributed to higher tax rates and budget deficits, despite a rise in tax revenues.
Consensus
- The number of tax-related criminal cases in Russia increased by 17.2% in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.
- This increase is described as the highest in at least 12 years.
- The rise occurred amid a significant increase in tax rates, including the introduction of a progressive NDFL scale (13%–22%), an increase in corporate profit tax to 25%, and a rise in VAT from 20% to 22%.
- The threshold for small businesses to be exempt from VAT was reduced from 60 million to 20 million rubles annually.
- Tax revenues, particularly from VAT, increased significantly—by nearly 25% for the first seven months of 2026.
- Despite higher tax collections, the federal budget deficit reached 6.5 trillion rubles by July 2026, exceeding the annual plan by 70.5%.
- The Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) reported the data on tax crimes.
- The number of detected tax violations reflects enforcement capacity rather than necessarily a rise in evasion behavior.
Points of divergence
- The Bell links the rise in tax crimes to the government's attempt to find additional revenue due to budget deficit and falling oil and gas revenues. — novaya_eu
- Vladimir Kolokol'tsev, head of the MVD, stated that 70 billion rubles were recovered in tax evasion cases by June 2026, with a significant portion from seized assets. — tg_moscowtimes_ru
- The Federal Tax Service (FNS) increasingly detects tax schemes using analysis of tax reporting and bank transactions. — novaya_eu
- Tax revenues, not declining oil and gas income, remain a reliable source for filling the budget deficit. — thebell
Coverage (3 sources)
- In Russia, the number of tax crimes has reached record levels against the backdrop of tax hikes and budget deficit — Новая газета Европа
- What the record number of tax cases says about the budget hole, the first petrol from India and why Ukraine does not hit tankers — The Bell
- In Russia, number of tax evasion cases rose to record levels in 12 years after tax hikes — The Moscow Times