Russia's Central Bank Keeps Rate at 14%

Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank of Russia, stated that returning inflation to the target level of 4% will require a more prolonged period of moderately tight monetary conditions.

Consensus

The Central Bank of Russia maintained the key interest rate at 14% on October 23.
Inflation remains elevated, with expectations near recent highs.
A longer period of moderately tight monetary conditions is needed to return inflation to 4%.
The Central Bank revised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 7.1–7.6%.
The Central Bank stated that credit risks in the economy remain under control.

Points of divergence

The Central Bank decided to abolish preferential treatment in calculating credit risk concentration for large borrowers, effective from 2028, requiring banks to apply a uniform risk coefficient of 100% for corporate borrowers. — vedomosti
The Central Bank raised its forecast for the average key rate next year to 12.5–13.5%. — interfax
The year-on-year inflation rate in Russia was 6.8% as of October 19. — vesti

Coverage (6 sources)

Russians are advised not to make large purchases until the end of the year — Вести
Nabiyulina: There is no risk to the financial stability of the Russian economy at present — Ведомости
Central Bank noted that returning inflation to 4% requires a longer period of moderately strict monetary conditions — Интерфакс
Central Bank expects return of price growth in Russia to 4% in the first half of 2027 — Ведомости
Central Bank expects current price growth rates in Russia to return to 4% in the first half of 2027 — Интерфакс
At the Central Bank, they explained what is needed to return inflation to 4% — Вести

Russia's Central Bank Keeps Rate at 14%

Consensus

Points of divergence

Coverage (6 sources)

Key entities

More on Elvira Nabiullin

More on Pyotr Shcherbachenko