Russia's GDP Grows 1.3% in Q2 2026 After Q1 Decline

Russia's economy grew by 1.3% in the second quarter of 2026, reversing a 0.2% decline in the first quarter, according to preliminary data from Rosstat. The growth was driven by strong consumer demand and government stimulus, despite ongoing external pressures and structural challenges.

Consensus

Russia's GDP grew by 1.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026.
The first quarter of 2026 saw a 0.2% decline in Russia's GDP.
The growth in the second quarter was driven by strong consumer demand and internal economic factors.
The data was released by Rosstat on August 12, 2026.
The growth rate for the first half of 2026 is reported as 0.6% by multiple sources.
The second-quarter growth exceeded the forecasts of both the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development.
The increase in working days in the second quarter compared to the previous year contributed to the growth.

Points of divergence

Economist Vladimir Yermokin predicts GDP growth of 0.7–1.2% for the full year 2026, attributing it to budgetary stimulus. — vesti
The growth was a surprise even to officials, and analysts doubt it will be sustained, predicting stagnation in the near future. — tg_moscowtimes_ru
The preliminary data is based on operational reporting from large and medium-sized non-financial enterprises, with a more detailed estimate to be released on September 11. — kommersant
The Ministry of Economic Development reported that the growth was due to stable domestic demand and positive dynamics in several sectors, including wholesale trade, transport, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and food industry. — vedomosti
The growth occurred despite drone attacks on oil refineries and a high key interest rate of 14% maintained by the Central Bank. — meduza
The Ministry of Economic Development revised its half-year growth estimate from 0.3% to 0.6% after Rosstat's release. — interfax

Coverage (9 sources)

Economist forecasts Russian GDP growth by end of year — Вести
In the Central Statistical Administration, reasons for the growth of GDP in Russia were named — Вести
Rosstat declares economy returned to growth after Putin's demand to stop decline — The Moscow Times
GDP of Russia increased by 1.3% by the end of the second quarter — Коммерсантъ
Rosstat preliminarily estimated GDP growth in QII at 1.3% — Вести
Russia's GDP grew by 1.3% in the second quarter — Ведомости
Russia's economy grew by 1.3% in the second quarter — after a failure in the first — Meduza
Rosstat preliminarily estimated GDP growth in the second quarter of the year at the level of 1.3% — Коммерсантъ
Rosstat assessed growth of Russian Federation GDP in Q2 at 1.3%, for H1 – 0.6% — Интерфакс

Russia's GDP Grows 1.3% in Q2 2026 After Q1 Decline

Consensus

Points of divergence

Coverage (9 sources)

Key entities

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