Russia's grain exports fall fourfold amid Ukrainian attacks
Russia's grain exports dropped nearly fourfold in the second half of September due to Ukrainian attacks on Black Sea terminals and vessels, leading to reduced shipments, lower prices, and a shift in export routes to the Baltic region.
Consensus
- Russia's grain exports decreased significantly in the second half of September.
- The decline began in July and continued into September.
- Exports of wheat, barley, and corn all dropped sharply.
- The reduction is attributed to Ukrainian attacks on Black Sea grain terminals and vessels.
- Prices for Russian wheat and domestic production have decreased.
- Export routes have shifted toward the Baltic region.
- The volume of grain exported in September is expected to be below 1 million tons.
- The decline has affected multiple export destinations, with some countries reducing purchases or seeking alternative suppliers.
Points of divergence
- The number of countries purchasing Russian wheat dropped to 8 from 29 the previous year. — tg_astrapress
- Russia exported wheat to Mexico for the first time, with 25,000 tons shipped. — tg_astrapress
- The price of Russian wheat (FOB Novorossiysk) dropped to $212 per ton, $77 less than European wheat. — tg_astrapress
- The price for producers fell to $105.7 per ton, down from $129 in September 2025. — tg_astrapress
- The shutdown of major Black Sea terminals (NKHP, NZT, KSK) began on August 12. — kommerzant
- The grain export shift is due to the closure of key Black Sea terminals and the movement of flows to the Baltic region. — kommerzant
- The Central Bank of Russia noted that short-term export reduction has a disinflationary effect on prices. — interfax
- Long-term export restrictions could reduce agricultural production due to lower profitability. — interfax
- The Central Bank suggests that the effects could be mitigated by state support and adaptation by producers. — interfax
Coverage (5 sources)
- At the Central Bank, the deflationary effect of a short-term reduction in grain exports was noted — Интерфакс
- ProZerno expects grain exports from Russia to be cut by 1.6 times in July-September — Интерфакс
- Russia cut wheat export shipments by nearly four times in the second decade of September due to Ukrainian attacks on Black Sea grain terminals and ships — ASTRA
- Russia cut grain exports to the world by four times in mid-September — Коммерсантъ
- Russia reduced wheat exports to almost four times from September 10 to 20 — Интерфакс
Key entities
- Russia
- Moscow
- INTERFAX.RU
- Interfax
- Russian Grain Union
- Prozerno
- CB
- Bank of Russia
- Baltic
- Vladimir Petrichenko