Russia's wheat exports to drop to 2010 lows in September
Russian wheat exports are projected to plummet in September 2024, with forecasts indicating a drop to 1.8–2.3 million tons—down 52.1–62.5% from the previous year and the lowest since 2010—due to damage to Black Sea and Azov Sea ports by Ukrainian drones. Exporters have shifted to alternative routes via the Baltic and northern ports, as well as land routes to Central Asia and Kazakhstan, but have not fully compensated for lost capacity.
Consensus
- Russian wheat exports in September 2024 are projected to fall by 52.1–62.5%, reaching the lowest level since 2010.
- The decline in exports began in late July following damage to Black Sea and Azov Sea port terminals by Ukrainian drones.
- Exporters have shifted to alternative routes, including Baltic and northern Russian ports, as well as land routes to Kazakhstan and Central Asia.
- In August 2024, Russia exported approximately 2 million tons of wheat, a 55.6% decrease compared to the same month last year.
- The reduction in export capacity has not been fully compensated by alternative routes.
- The Russian government has maintained a floating export duty mechanism for wheat, corn, and barley since June 2021, based on weekly price indicators.
Points of divergence
- The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia has presented new export duty calculations effective from September 9, with wheat duty increasing to 1,170.3 rubles per ton, while corn duty rises to 898.1 rubles per ton; barley duty remains at zero. — interfax
- A decision to suspend export duties on wheat, barley, and corn until December 31, 2026, has been made by the customs subcommittee, though the government decree has not yet been signed. — interfax
- Turkey reduced its import of Russian wheat to a one-year low in July, with imports amounting to $46.1 million, a 60% drop from the previous month. — vesti
- Turkey continued purchasing Russian corn in July, with shipments totaling $37.1 million, and $229.3 million for the first seven months of the year. — vesti
- The price of Russian wheat on the domestic market has dropped by over 40% in the past year due to export difficulties. — tg_theinsider
- The Institute of Agricultural Market Conjunction (IKAR) expects a significant reduction in September exports but has not provided specific figures. — kommersant
Coverage (11 sources)
- Ministry of Agriculture presented tariff calculation for grain export from Russia starting September 9 — Интерфакс
- Wheat harvest in Russia in 2026 may drop to 88.5 million tons from 91.1 million tons in 2025 — Интерфакс
- Grain reserves in agricultural organizations of the Russian Federation by August 1 decreased by 10.1% to 23.7 million tons — Интерфакс
- Rusagrottrans forecasts wheat exports from Russia in September at the level of 1.6-2 million tons — Интерфакс
- Export of Russian wheat to Turkey in July of this year dropped by almost two-thirds — Вести
- Export duty on wheat from Russia from September 2nd decreases by 22.2% — Интерфакс
- Russia reduced grain exports in August by 3.5 times to 1.7 million tons — Интерфакс
- Export of Russian wheat in September will crash by 52–62.5% and become the lowest since 2010 — SovEkon — The Insider
- Wheat exports in September may fall to a minimum since 2010 — Коммерсантъ
- Export duty on wheat from Russia will be reduced by 22.2% from September 2 — Интерфакс
- Export duty on wheat from Russia increases to more than 1 thousand rubles per ton from August 26 — Интерфакс
Key entities
- Russia
- Moscow
- INTERFAX.RU
- Ministry of Agriculture and Food
- Turkey
- SovEcon
- Interfax
- Rusagrottrans
- Prozerno
- RIA Novosti
- Rosstat
- Ikar
- Russian Grain Union
- Elena Tyurina
- Vladimir Petrichenko