Super El Niño May Cause 451K Deaths
El Niño could lead to 450,000 heat-related deaths by February.
Consensus
- The Super El Niño phenomenon is expected to cause over 450,000 excess deaths globally.
- The period of highest impact is projected to be from September 2026 to February 2027.
- The primary cause of death is extreme heat linked to the El Niño event.
- The highest number of excess deaths is expected in Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil.
- The El Niño event is associated with warming of the Pacific Ocean's surface waters.
- The phenomenon is described as a 'preview of future climate' due to its alignment with long-term global warming.
- The Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago is the source of the forecast.
- The report urges governments to implement emergency measures such as cooling centers and healthcare adjustments.
Points of divergence
- The average sea surface temperature reached a record 20.98 degrees Celsius in June, surpassing the previous June maximum set in 2024. — vm
- The forecast predicts deaths by February of the following year due to extreme heat caused by the record El Niño. — vesti
- The El Niño index (ONI) reached +3.04°C in September, qualifying it as a 'Super El Niño' or 'Godzilla-level' event. — kommersant
- The El Niño is expected to cause a 44% increase in extremely hot days compared to other years. — fontanka
- The El Niño will affect Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil most severely. — tg_rian_ru
- The El Niño is described as a 'preview of the future' climate, showing temperatures that may become normal in 20 years. — vm
Coverage (7 sources)
- «Godzilla». El Niño could lead to 450,000 deaths from heat by February — Кедр.медиа
- Climatologists from CIL forecast death of more than 400 thousand people due to El Nino — Вечерняя Москва
- Heat triggered by the El Niño phenomenon could claim more than 451,000 lives, according to a report by the Climate Impact Lab... — ТАСС (Telegram)
- Scientists predicted mass cases of human deaths due to El Niño phenomenon — Вести
- Super El Nino effect may lead to death of 450 thousand people in half a year — Коммерсантъ
- More than 450 thousand people may die on the planet due to El Nino in the next six months. — РИА Новости (Telegram)
- Scientists warn of 451,000 deaths due to 'super El Niño' — Фонтанка
Key entities
- Climate Impact Lab
- Pacific Ocean
- University of Chicago
- CIL
- Reuters
- Indonesia
- Brazil
- India
- Nigeria
- Sudan
- El Niño Phenomenon
- Super El Nino
- Michael Greenstone