Russia Upgrades 2026 Dollar Forecast to 79.5 Rubles
Russia's Ministry of Economic Development revised its 2026 dollar exchange rate forecast to 79.5 rubles, while projecting continued ruble weakening through 2029. The forecast was presented to the government and reflects expectations of stronger currency performance in the second and third quarters of 2026.
Consensus
- The Ministry of Economic Development revised its forecast for the average dollar exchange rate in 2026 to 79.5 rubles.
- The Ministry projects continued ruble weakening from 2027 through 2029.
- The forecast was submitted to the government as part of the socio-economic development plan for 2027 and the planning period of 2028–2029.
- The average exchange rate for 2026 is expected to be below 80 rubles per dollar even with projected ruble depreciation.
- The ruble has shown volatility since mid-June, with a noticeable decline in August.
Points of divergence
- The Ministry of Economic Development noted that the 2026 forecast reflects a stronger currency already in place and does not anticipate significant depreciation. — vesti
- Market analysts surveyed by the Central Bank of Russia have worsened their dollar rate expectations for 2026 and 2027 compared to earlier forecasts. — vesti
- Minister Maxim Reshetnikov stated the 2026 forecast is based on expected currency strengthening in the second and third quarters. — vedomosti
- A broker from Sinaра Bank predicted the dollar could reach 95 rubles by year-end due to challenges in oil refining and fuel imports. — vedomosti
Coverage (2 sources)
- Ministry of Economic Development improved forecast for dollar exchange rate — Вести
- Reshetnikov forecasted the dollar exchange rate in 2026 at the level of 79.5 rubles — Ведомости