Russia's inflation forecast for 2026 raised to 6.6%
Analysts raised inflation forecasts for 2026 from 6.2% to 6.6%.
Consensus
- The Bank of Russia updated its macroeconomic survey on September 2.
- Analysts revised the inflation forecast for 2026 to 6.6%.
- Inflation is expected to decline to 4.6% in 2027 and reach the central bank's target of 4% by 2028–2029.
- The key interest rate forecast for 2026 remains at 14.5% annually.
- Economic growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were slightly reduced to 0.5% and 1.2% respectively.
- The budget deficit forecast for 2026 was increased to 3.5% of GDP.
- The forecast for the ruble's exchange rate shows gradual depreciation, with the dollar expected to reach 97.2 rubles by 2029.
- The unemployment rate is expected to remain low, around 2.2–2.8% over the forecast period.
- Nominal wage growth is expected to be 10.4% in 2026 and 7.5% in 2027.
- Real wage growth is projected at 4.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027.
- The range of forecasts for most indicators has narrowed.
Points of divergence
- The Bank of Russia's first deputy, Alexei Zabotkin, stated that the pro-inflation scenario is the most likely, with inflation in 2027 expected to be between 4.5% and 5.5%. — vedomosti
- Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma's committee on the financial market, said inflation will return to 4% in 2027, contingent on stabilizing the oil products market. — vesti
- Anatoly Aksakov reiterated that inflation will return to 4% in 2127, emphasizing government measures to stabilize the oil products market. — tg_tass_agency
Coverage (4 sources)
- Central Bank consulted analysts lowered inflation forecast for 2026 to 6.6% — Фонтанка
- Analysts interviewed by the Central Bank raised inflation forecast for 2026 — Ведомости
- Aksakov believes inflation in Russia will return to 4% in 2027 — Вести
- Inflation in Russia will return to 4% in 2027. Such an opinion was expressed by Anatoly Aksakov in an interview with TASS ahead of the VEXPO. — ТАСС (Telegram)