United Russia Gets First Ballot Spot in 21 Regions
The United Russia party received the first position in 21 out of 39 regional parliaments' ballots for September 2026 elections, prompting claims of statistical anomaly from the Yabloko party's analyst, who called the outcome mathematically improbable.
Consensus
- United Russia received the first position in 21 of 39 regions for regional parliament elections in September 2026.
- The Yabloko party's analytical center, led by Ivan Bolshakov, stated that the probability of this outcome under random draw is 0.00000378%
- The result is described as a massive statistical deviation from normal distribution.
- Yabloko is registered in five regions: Kaliningrad, Novgorod, Sverdlovsk, Tomsk, and Pskov.
- In those five regions, Yabloko received positions 2, 3, 3, 4, and 9 respectively.
- The Yabloko party has been removed from federal elections by the Supreme Court.
Points of divergence
- The Yabloko party filed a complaint with the Moscow City Electoral Commission about illegal campaign activities by United Russia, which remains unanswered. — novaya_eu
- The ballot distribution in Sverdlovsk Oblast matches the federal ballot for the State Duma, with six parties instead of 11 after Yabloko's removal, and the probability of such coincidence is 0.139%. — tg_varlamov_news
- The Yabloko party claims United Russia violated both mathematical laws and state regulations. — tg_sotavisionmedia
- United Russia also received the first position in the State Duma ballot, with Yabloko second before being removed by the Supreme Court. — meduza
- The report discusses Moscow's federal election forecasts, including United Russia's projected 41–44% vote share and 15–16 single-mandate seats, and mentions the removal of Yabloko from the federal ballot by the Central Election Commission on August 18. — vm
Coverage (7 sources)
- One chance in 26 million. United Russia got the first line in ballots in 21 of 39 regions — Новая газета Европа
- «United Russia» received first place in ballots in 21 of 39 regions in regional parliament elections, «such a result looks like a huge statistical deviation from the norm», said in «Apple». — Varlamov News
- United Russia topped lists in most regions, defying the laws of mathematics — SOTAvision
- United Russia received the first number in ballots in 21 of 39 regions in elections to regional parliaments. With random drawing this is practically impossible — Meduza
- United Russia became first in bulletins in 21 of 39 regions in elections to regional parliaments — Дождь
- United Russia became first in ballots in 21 of 39 regions in elections to regional parliaments — Дождь (Telegram)
- Politologists: Opposition electorate in Moscow is diluted among different parties — Вечерняя Москва