According to Petrychenko's forecast, grain harvest this year will…
According to Petrychenko's forecast, grain harvest this year will amount to 134.3 million tons (excluding data from new regions), including 87.3 million tons of wheat, 18.9 million tons of barley, and 15.6 million tons of corn.
Consensus
- The export potential of Russian grain for the 2026–2007 agricultural year is estimated between 53.8 and 58.5 million tons.
- The Azov-Black Sea basin is experiencing infrastructure damage due to drone attacks, limiting grain exports.
- Export volumes in July 2026 were significantly lower than in July 2025, with wheat exports down 17.7% year-on-year.
- The situation in the Azov-Black Sea region has led to reduced daily export volumes and fewer export ports being used.
- The Russian grain export potential includes 44.2–45 million tons of wheat.
- The decline in exports has affected prices for farmers and may impact their profitability.
- Alternative export corridors are being sought due to the ongoing disruptions.
Points of divergence
- The export potential for wheat is estimated at 44.2–45 million tonnes, and for corn at nearly 5 million tonnes, and barley at 4.6 million tonnes. — interfax
- The Institute of Agricultural Market Conjunction (IKAR) estimates the total grain export potential at 58.5 million tonnes, including 44.5 million tonnes of wheat. — interfax
- Expert Alexander Korbut stated that theoretically 55 million tonnes of grain could be exported, including 45 million tonnes of wheat, depending on alternative routes and resolution of the situation in the Azov-Black Sea basin. — interfax
- In July 2026, Russia exported 2.026 million tonnes of major grain crops, a 37.6% decrease compared to July 2025. — vedomosti
- The number of wheat exporters dropped to 20 from 36 in the same period of the previous year. — vedomosti
- The number of ports used for grain exports decreased to 21 from 38 in July 2025. — vedomosti
- The cost of Russian wheat at FOB Novorossiysk on August 1 was $232 per tonne, while European and American wheat were priced at $267 and $272 per tonne, respectively. — vedomosti
- The Russian Union of Exporters and Producers of Grain reported that the reduction in Russian wheat exports could reach 30–35 million tonnes, representing 15% of global wheat trade. — vedomosti
Coverage (5 sources)
- Experts noted limited possibilities for grain realization at export potential of 53.8-58.5 million tons — Интерфакс
- The export duty on wheat from the Russian Federation from August 5 is 5.7 rubles per ton — Интерфакс
- Volume of Russian wheat exports fell by 17.7% in July — Ведомости
- Russia reduced wheat exports in July by nearly 18% — Интерфакс
- Export duty on wheat from Russia starting August 5 will be 5.7 rubles/ton — Интерфакс
Key entities
- Russia
- Moscow
- INTERFAX.RU
- Interfax
- Ministry of Agriculture and Food
- Russian Grain Union
- Elena Tyurina
- Ikar
- Azov-Black Sea Basin