Russia's grain exports fall 2.5x in August

In addition, wheat exports decreased by 4.6 times to 415.5 thousand tons, corn exports by 2.7 times to 38.6 thousand tons, and barley exports by 11 times to 24.6 thousand tons.

Consensus

Russia's grain exports from August 1 to 20 were approximately 1.4 million tons.
This represents a 2.5-fold decrease compared to the same period in the previous year.
The decline is primarily attributed to logistical problems in the Azov-Black Sea basin.
Port infrastructure in the Azov-Black Sea basin has been partially damaged.
Shipping in the Black Sea region is hindered.
Russia has the potential to export volumes comparable to the previous season.
Export routes are being redirected from the Azov-Black Sea basin to the Baltic Sea.
The export potential remains strong despite the current decline.

Points of divergence

The main drop in exports occurred in the second decade of August, with grain exports falling 4.8 times compared to the same period in 2025. — interfax
In the second decade of August, wheat exports were sent to eight countries, compared to 28 in the previous season. — interfax
Bangladesh became the top buyer of Russian wheat, with shipments increasing 1.9 times to 110,000 tons. — interfax
Exports to Egypt fell nearly eightfold to 62,000 tons in the second decade of August. — interfax
Only seven companies exported wheat in the second decade of August, compared to 36 in the previous year. — interfax
The price of wheat on the Baltic Sea rose by $15 per ton to $255 per ton due to worsening conditions in the Black Sea. — vedomosti
The price of wheat in Novorossiysk fell by $6 per ton to $215 per ton. — vedomosti
The American SRW wheat price rose to $283 per ton, and Romanian wheat rose by 12.5% to $268 per ton. — vedomosti
Ukrainian wheat exports decreased by 18% from July 1, with barley down 28% and flour down 54%. — vedomosti
The export duty on wheat will increase by 1.4 times from August 26, reaching 1012.1 rubles per ton. — kommerst
The export duty on corn will double, rising from 285 to 607.3 rubles per ton. — kommerst
The export duty on barley will remain zero. — kommerst

Coverage (8 sources)

Volume of grain exports in Russia decreased by 2.5 times in August — Вести
Export duty on wheat from Russia will be increased almost by 1.5 times — Коммерсантъ
Russia reduced grain exports to 1.4 million tons by 2.5 times from August 1 to 20 — Интерфакс
Export duty on wheat from Russia will increase by 1.4 times from August 26 — Интерфакс
MSZ lowered annual wheat export forecast from Russia by 2.5 million tons immediately, to 45.2 million tons — Интерфакс
Wheat prices on the Baltic rose by $15 per ton — Ведомости
Export prices for wheat in Novorossiysk fell by $6/ton over the week, while prices on the Baltic rose by $15/ton — Интерфакс
RusAgroTrans lowers wheat export forecast for August from 3.1 to 1.8 million tons — Интерфакс

Russia's grain exports fall 2.5x in August

Consensus

Points of divergence

Coverage (8 sources)

Key entities

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