And undoubtedly, it would be wrong to expect a straightforward… (цена · ставка · топливо)
And undoubtedly, it would be wrong to expect a straightforward reaction from the Central Bank; specifically, that rising fuel prices, which could lead to price increases in other sectors, (will result in - IF) the decision to combat them by raising the key interest rate.
Consensus
- The Central Bank of Russia is scheduled to hold a meeting on July 24 regarding the key interest rate.
- There is a growing expectation that the central bank will maintain the key rate at 14.25% without changes.
- Inflation in June increased significantly, with fuel prices being a major contributing factor.
- The Central Bank cannot ignore the impact of rising fuel prices on inflation and public expectations.
Points of divergence
- Analysts from major banks and investment firms believe this could be the first pause in the current cycle of monetary policy easing, which began in June of last year. — vm
- The portfolio manager at Alpha Capital believes that a rate hike is not the base scenario but cannot be ruled out entirely if fuel price increases begin to affect broader prices and services. — riamo
- The Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, Alexei Zabotkin, stated that temporary price spikes are expected to slow down afterward, implying a short-term nature of inflationary pressure. — fontanka
Coverage (6 sources)
- RBC: Central Bank of Russia may keep key rate at 14.25 percent annual — Вечерняя Москва
- Expert names most likely outcome for Central Bank's July 24 key rate decision — РИАМО
- Deputy Governor of the Central Bank: The Bank of Russia cannot 'close its eyes' to fuel prices — Фонтанка
- Central Bank promises not to ignore fuel prices — Коммерсантъ
- Business calls on Central Bank not to raise key rate due to fuel price increase — Фонтанка
- Shokin confident that the Central Bank's reaction to fuel price hikes should not be 'head-on' — Интерфакс